Next Japan PM’s possible no-show at ASEAN summits may favor China

TOKYO (Kyodo) — The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election later this month may prevent its winner, who will also become Japan’s new prime minister, from attending ASEAN-related summits in October due to domestic political constraints.

Government officials are worried that if the new leader is absent from the large-scale international talks, it might allow China to further expand its influence in the developing world, potentially denting Japan’s diplomacy with emerging nations.

While aiming to bolster relations with the “Global South” emerging and developing economies such as ASEAN members to tackle regional security threats, Japan could miss valuable opportunities to hold bilateral summits with these countries, they added.

The LDP’s leadership race is slated for Sept. 27. In August, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he will not seek reelection as president of the ruling party, which has been rattled by a slush funds scandal that was revealed late last year.

Kishida’s successor is expected to be appointed on Oct. 1 at an extraordinary Diet session and dissolve the House of Representatives to call a general election for as early as mid-October. The lower house election may be held on Oct. 27, some lawmakers said.

Such political timelines at home are likely to keep the new prime minister in Japan, even though the annual meetings related to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations are set to take place for four days from Oct. 8 in Vientiane, Laos.

The gatherings include one that brings together the ASEAN countries, Japan, China and South Korea, as well as an expanded one adding the United States, Russia, India, Australia and New Zealand.

As for the possibility of Japan’s next prime minister participating in the ASEAN summits, a Japanese Foreign Ministry official in charge of Southeast Asia said, “It will definitely be a political decision and we cannot say anything for now.”

U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to Laos is also uncertain as he would be in a lame-duck period after abandoning his reelection bid for the Nov. 5 presidential race, making way for Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.

Biden skipped the last year’s ASEAN meetings in Jakarta and Harris took part instead, at a time when Washington has been at odds with Communist-led Beijing over the Asian power’s growing military assertiveness in the South China Sea and around democratic Taiwan.

No-shows by the top leaders of Japan and the United States “would enable China to do whatever it wants” in promoting its claims to regional counterparts at the upcoming ASEAN summits, said Katsuyuki Yakushiji, a professor in diplomacy at Toyo University.

As Tokyo and Beijing continue jockeying for influence in the Global South, ASEAN members “may increasingly lean toward China” unless Japan’s new leader makes a strong commitment to the region in person, Yakushiji said.

China has been extending its clout in the Global South through development aid and infrastructure investment. Some such nations have joined Beijing-led platforms like BRICS, with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa as its core members, along with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Bilaterally, Tokyo and Beijing are divided over the release of treated radioactive water from the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant into the sea and China’s subsequent ban on Japanese seafood imports. China’s military activities are also a matter of concern.

Japan should use the ASEAN summits not only to get closer to the Global South but to improve relations with China, foreign affairs experts said. On the sidelines of the 2023 gatherings, Kishida had a brief chat with Chinese Premier Li Qiang.

“ASEAN summits are key events that have provided Japan with a window of opportunity for dialogue with China and others every year, which we should take advantage of,” the Japanese official said.

(Keita Nakamura)